Voinovich’s future

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has ranked all 34 U.S. Senate races in 2010, and he has Ohio’s as the third-most likely to switch parties.

Here’s his analysis:

3. Ohio (R-Voinovich)

Approval/Favorability Ratings: George Voinovich (R)
Poll               Date    Approve   Disapprove    Net
Strategic Vision   11/1      53          37        +16
SurveyUSA          10/18     51          39        +12
Quinnipiac         8/8       51          32        +19


60%    Generic D vs Voinovich (R)                  30%
20%    Generic D vs Portman (R)                    50%
20%    Generic D vs Generic R                      60%
--------------------------------------------------------
Combined Probability of Democratic Pickup        40.0

This parallels the Specter race in certain respects, winnable either through retirement (Marc Ambinder has suggested that Voinovich might hang it up) or through a straight-up takeover (Voinovich is in fact a bit less popular than Specter). But there are a couple of mitigating factors. Firstly, there’s no indication that Voinovich will face a serious primary challenge, which removes at least once concern for him. And secondly, if Voinovich retires, the Republicans have a fairly strong potential alternative in Rob Portman, who has suggested he might be interested in the position.

With that said, Voinovich still probably represents the Republicans’ best chance of holding onto their seat. The structural advantages of incumbency are worth something, whereas Voinovich’s mediocre approval ratings likely reflect the tough climate for Ohio Republicans in general right now rather than anything about Voinovich in particular; those cooties would probably transfer to any potential Republican alternative, in other words. Portman, meanwhile, while a capable administrator, is relatively unproven electorally.

One thing to remember about Voinovich is that he’s a real survivor and a proven vote getter. After his disastrous 1988 U.S. Senate campaign against Democrat Howard Metzenbaum, Voinovich has run four races — two for governor, and two for Senate — and cruised comfortably in each. His 1994 re-election was one of the great beatdowns in Ohio electoral history. Republicans grumble about Voinovich, but it’s very difficult to envision a credible GOP challenger trying to take down this sitting senator. Voinovich will be 74 in 2010, but I’ve seen no indication that he’s ready to retire.

The Democrats have a large stable of potential challengers — many promising U.S. House representatives and statewide officials. Of those, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, a veteran of several statewide campaigns, might be the best potential candidate. It’s probably too early to say who the nominee ultimately will be, but whoever it is, that person will receive lots of money from national Democrats, who might think that Ohio is trending blue. It is, although that might just be a reflection of the national picture.

2010: The Obama Backlash?

Pat Buchanan, one of my favorite political commentators, wrote a recent column explaining why an Obama victory will mean a big backlash in 2010. Remember that Bill Clinton’s win in 1992 led directly to the Gingrich Revolution in 1994, where the Republicans took control of the House for the first time in four decades.

For Ohio, a Republican resurgence in 2010 might have implications on Democrat Ted Strickland’s re-election prospects, as well as a U.S. Senate race that could be wide open if two-term Republican George Voinovich decides to retire (from what I’ve heard, he’s running again).

Policy-wise, this means that Democrats on the federal level will have, basically, the 2009 calendar year to implement the top of their agenda, which to me probably means some kind of health care reform.

Remember that, in 1993, Bill and Hillary Clinton couldn’t get a Democratic Congress on board to do anything about health care.